As I write, David Davis has just resigned as Brexit secretary. This could be the beginning of a wild and wonderful week. It could play out in various ways, but it’s hard to see an outcome that serves Brexit well. We should, therefore, be thankful.
First, Davis. After repeatedly threatening to resign but never following through, he has finally done it. Although Michel Barnier may lament that the time he has spent negotiating with Davis this year is four hours he will never get back, it’s hard to imagine that anyone will truly miss Davis. He must rank as one of the most overrated politicians of our age. His specialisms are bluster, vacuous grandstanding and self-satisfaction. If Davis was the best the government could send to negotiate with the EU, then it was always a good bet the negotiations would get next to nowhere. His incompetence was never more exposed than when he repeatedly claimed that his department had conducted detailed sectoral analyses of the impact of Brexit, only for him to be rumbled when parliament requested to see these analyses. He stalled for as long as he could before eventually doing what any panicking student would do: he hastily cobbled together some analysis out of basic Internet research. It’s fair to ask several questions about this. Why, given he was in charge of delivering Brexit, had he not bothered doing any research on Brexit? Why did he persist in claiming that he had done some research when in fact he hadn’t? Did he not suppose that he might be found out eventually? And why, on the most important political issue in generations, was someone who behaved like a lazy, bullshitting student put in charge?
It would be surprising if more resignations do not follow (Steve Baker, another minister in Davis’s department, has also resigned). Boris Johnson must surely be giving serious thought to it. If there’s any chance that Theresa May’s government is about to collapse, then his own leadership ambitions will be finished if he hasn’t got out of that government in time. The best way to work out what Johnson will do is to consider various scenarios and assess what actions would be most likely to fulfil his ego-driven, self-serving quest to become prime minister. It’s not likely he will ever achieve that quest, but he certainly won’t resist a tilt—and this may well be his last chance.
A leadership contest is highly likely. The outcome of that is entirely unpredictable. My best guess is that May will cling on. The Conservative Party is so divided that it is hard to imagine a credible unity candidate. More likely is that it will split along soft/hard (pragmatic/fantasist) Brexit lines, and now that May has signalled a move towards soft Brexit, she may just about garner enough support to see off the challenge—the arithmetic probably favours a pragmatist or a soft Brexit candidate, which is what May will calculate and stand for. But she will be weakened even further, and whatever the outcome it is hard to see Tory divisions resolved any time soon.
All of this is good news for those of us who oppose Brexit. The rule of thumb here is that the weaker the government, the less likely is Brexit. The most pessimistic I have been since the referendum was when May called a general election: like most others, I assumed she would get a huge majority and be able to push through Brexit without any significant opposition. But the best night of politics in my life was that of the general election itself: the utterly unexpected disaster that May had brought upon herself made Brexit far less likely (almost my first thought when I saw the exit poll was that Brexit was finished). What we’ve been treated to since then is the hopeless (but often entertaining) psychodrama of the Tory party, which has ensured that little credible progress has been made on Brexit. Meanwhile, Remainers and the EU watch on, somewhat bemused, at the interminable Brexit game being played out in the Tory party, all the while patiently letting the Brexiteer unicorn-chasers vent until they shatter their own Brexit fantasies.
Of course, there are risks. It is hard to know what the EU will make of all this. Can meaningful negotiations take place with a government (and governing party) in a state of civil war? British politics is so unstable right now that it is hard to see how the EU can trust any negotiating position of the UK. And if agreement has to be reached within the next few months (and progress achieved almost immediately), how will this happen if the Tories are at war with themselves?
The prospect of no deal has, therefore, significantly increased. No deal is, of course, a disaster—and everyone, apart from the most lunatic Brexiteers, knows it. For that reason, if no deal is the likely outcome then there will be a crisis, which will probably lead to the fall of the government, and certainly will lead to an attempt at an emergency solution that avoids the cliff edge and the catastrophic economic and political turmoil that will follow. I suspect that the EU calculated this from the beginning (it was always an idiotic bluff of May to think that the EU would be worried by no deal—they knew, because it is obvious, that no deal is a vastly worse outcome for the UK1 than it is for the EU27). It may be (and this has always struck me as a sensible option) that Brexit is parked in a Norway option until such time (and it may be years or decades or forever) that the UK has sorted out its weird relationship to Europe. My guess is that general elections, and maybe even a second referendum, are far more likely to happen than Brexit being decided any time soon.
Fighting Brexit has always been a long game. I sensed this in the days immediately following the referendum. The point, of course, is that Brexit would be both a tragedy and a disaster, but fortunately one that was never going to be easy to achieve; however, the full scale of the near impossibility of Brexit, and its potentially calamitous effects, would only become fully apparent in time. It’s always been about patience and waiting for the Brexiteer position to implode. Along the way, we have been treated to the most incompetent government in modern British history—but the ride has been, at times, richly entertaining. And this coming week promises to be Brexit politics at its hilariously entertaining best. That said, the UK remains in an appalling political crisis with no end to it in sight.
UPDATE Originally, I mentioned that Suella Braverman had also resigned. Apparently she hasn’t. It’s hard to keep track of the government’s chaos.