One of the many delusions of Brexit supporters is that the UK, freed from the shackles of the EU, will assume its rightful place as a heavyweight global power. This stems from their befuddled notion of reality: a shaky and selective grasp of history (which would appear to owe more to 1066 and All That than to any scholarly account of history) leads them to suppose that Britain’s status as a ‘top dog’ has been temporarily held in check by membership of the EU. In the delirious but intellectually feeble minds of men like Liam Fox and Nigel Farage, that Britain once had an empire and supposedly ruled the waves is evidence enough of an innate British ‘greatness’ that will once again be internationally recognized if only the country is liberated from the soft, emasculating tyranny of Brussels. Most of Boris Johnson’s vacuous and puffed-up nonsense is sung from the same page: just believe in Britain’s natural greatness and a bright future is guaranteed, etc.
Those of us with a surer understanding of past and present know that the Brexiteer view on the EU is fundamentally wrong. Far from destroying the European nation state, the EU has in fact preserved and strengthened it. With the arguable exception of Germany, not one of the EU member states would be able to compete globally on its own—at least, not in a way that would come anywhere near attaining its current level of prosperity. Indeed, this is one of the reasons why the EU is one of the great historical creations: not only has it ensured peace throughout most of a continent that for millennia had been a site of almost constant belligerence (to the point of near self-destruction by 1945), but it has simultaneously enabled a disparate collection of small and medium-sized countries to punch above their weight on the global scene. On their own, not one of the EU countries could compete on a relatively level playing field with the might of China, Russia or the US; collectively, they can.
Perhaps the UK’s difficulties in agreeing a deal on the Irish border will awaken some Brexiteers to this reality. Put simply, British arrogance (an alarmingly prominent characteristic among the Brexiteers) assumes that Ireland, as a relatively small and poor country, can be safely ignored or pushed around as Britain sees fit—a longstanding trope in Anglo-Irish relations that Brexit supporters see no reason in abandoning. But look what has happened: Ireland has drawn a line, one that is entirely reasonable, and Britain has been forced to accept it (the alternative, which is to reject it, would simply accelerate its own national suicide—it says much about the dangerously stupid thinking of the hard Brexiteers that rejecting it is, for them, a viable option). Nobody would deny that, when measured side by side, the UK is an economically bigger and stronger country than Ireland, and one that carries more international weight. So how is it that, on the matter of a Brexit deal, Ireland seems clearly stronger than the UK? Why is it (as of writing this) that Ireland is adamant that it will not back down? The answer is obvious: Ireland is strengthened by its belonging to the EU27.
For the Brexit fantasists, this ought to be a salutary lesson. If the UK pretty much has to concede to the wishes of its smaller neighbour in these negotiations, how will it fare when it starts seeking trade agreements in a post-Brexit international landscape? One can safely ignore the nonsense of Empire 2.0; the outlook for the UK is grim. On its own, the UK, a middle-ranking nation heading downwards, will be ill-placed to negotiate on its own terms. A country such as Ireland can carry itself in the world thanks to its membership of the EU—its EU membership makes it, for example, an attractive proposition for international investment. A post-Brexit UK, on the other hand, needing deals with other countries far more than they need them with the UK, will be forced into desperate acceptance of almost any terms. Far from ruling the waves, a post-Brexit UK will look more like a ragged castaway drifting on a rickety raft.
There is, of course, a way to avoid this bleak future (and I remain optimistic that, when the UK collectively comes to its senses, this will be the outcome): Brexit should be abandoned on the grounds that it is the most stupid, tragic, shameful and self-destructive event in modern British history; or, failing that, the UK should park its neuroses about Europe indefinitely in a Norway option, thereby at least retaining membership of the single market and avoiding the suicidal plunge off the cliff edge.